The Solomon Islands heads to the polls in April 2024. This island nation, and strategically located along the Pacific shipping lanes and amid rich fishing grounds, is linked closely to New Zealand’s own history.  The coming elections may mark a turning point in our Pacific neighbor’s own security arrangements.

Next month’s election will be the first election since the country switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019.  Then in April 2022 the nation signed a security deal with Beijing that potentially gives Chinese ‘police, armed police’ and ‘military personnel’ access to the country. As well – if consent is forthcoming – the deal allows China to ‘make ship visits’ and deploy forces ‘to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects’.

To some observers this reads like a potential blank cheque for a longer-term Chinese military and naval presence in the South West Pacific.

The current Prime Minister, Manasseh Sogavare, has been head of government four times, but never for consecutive terms. He is now bolstered by Chinese financial support and he faces a weak and divided opposition. Yet the outcome of Prime Ministerial elections in the Solomon Islands is always difficult to predict, and the April election may also be hard to forecast..

Professor Fraenkel’s talk will cover:

• the background to the 2024 election;
• the earlier unrest that plagued the country from 1998-2003; and
• the Australian and New Zealand-led Regional Assistance Mission (RAMSI) that occurred over 2003-17.

As well the Professor will explain the electoral mechanics and the potential for post-election disturbances next month or after.

Jon Fraenkel is a Professor of Comparative Politics in the School of History, Philosophy, Political Science and International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington. He was formerly a Senior Research Fellow based at the Australian National University (2007-12) and the University of the South Pacific in Fiji (1995-2007).

He is also the Pacific correspondent for The Economist, and has published extensively on the politics of Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, Tonga, Samoa and Papua New Guinea.

He led an Independent Review Team that produced a 2014 report on the Regional Assistance Mission of the Solomon Islands (Solomon Islands National Parliament Paper No.27 of 2014).

* Visitors: $5.00 door fee. Tea and coffee will be served