Poland pivots from populism

Like here, a combination of opposition parties received more votes than the incumbent government. Like New Zealand too, it has taken months for a new government to take office. 

Unlike New Zealand, the delay was because Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, asked the populist Law and Justice Party to seek to continue leading the government on the rationale that they remained the largest single party in the Sejm (Poland’s legislature). It was an empty, time-consuming gesture, as the combined opposition parties now dominated the Sejm.

As expected, the Sejm instead elected Donald Tusk (leader of the centrist Civic Platform) as Poland’s new prime minister last week. Tusk is both a former prime minister and former president of the European Council. Lech Walesa (of Solidarity fame and himself a former Polish president) made a point of being in the Sejm to cheer Tusk’s election. In contrast—reflecting the bitter polarisation of Polish politics—Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński denounced Tusk as a German agent who would bring Poland under the thrall of Berlin and Brussels.

The significance of this change of government will reverberate beyond Poland. Above all, it represents a possible turning of a populist tide in Europe, varying markedly from results in recent national and state elections in the Netherlands, Germany and Slovakia. It will also deprive Hungary’s populist leader, Viktor Orbán, of an aligned government in disputes within the European Union on issues such as judicial independence. While Poland’s crucial support for Ukraine has been broadly bipartisan, there have been strained relations between the two countries in recent months over economic issues such as the impact of cheap grain exports on Poland. Tusk has pledged to work to resolve these issues and his government will undoubtedly continue Poland’s strong support for Ukraine’s accelerated accession into the European Union.

The new coalition’s win is the result of a record 72% turnout for the elections, an even larger percentage than during Poland’s first democratic elections in 1989. A related factor was the strong mobilisation of middle-class voters, women and young people, primarily in urban areas. These were the voters who previously often stayed away from elections, feeling disillusioned with politics. However, the Law and Justice government’s increasing interference in the social sphere as well as the rising cost of living led a majority of Poles to turn against them.

As in New Zealand, the victorious coalition is a tripartite grouping led by Civic Platform but including the Third Way and the Left. It is a fragile coalition, united primarily by the desire to keep the Law and Justice party out of power, but otherwise diverse in political views. Civic Platform identifies as centrist, but many consider it more centre-right, especially on social issues such as abortion or the rights of LGBTQ+ community. The Third Way is itself a coalition of a centrist, middle class movement and an agrarian focused party (Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party respectively), while the Left is a social-democratic party with a very progressive political programme.

The new government will face many challenges but three stand out. First, it will need to find a middle ground between the progressive left and the more socially conservative centre because their agendas differ widely, especially on social issues. A likely point of contention will be the question of liberalising the country’s strict abortion laws, which a majority of Poles support but which could be difficult to push through in the new Sejm. The second challenge will be to rebuild Polish civic society based on shared faith in public institutions: the justice system is in dire need of reform, while state owned companies must be wrested from partisan control. A third challenge will be to rebuild trust in Poland in the international community. Nationalist rhetoric and anti-immigration policies (notwithstanding the spontaneous solidarity shown to millions of displaced Ukrainians in 2022) have lowered Poland’s’ standing not only in Europe, but worldwide. It will be especially important to rebuild the relationship with the European Union if Poland wants to play a larger role in regional politics or influence the end of the war in Ukraine—a role for which Tusk’s own leadership experience in the European Union could prove critical.

It will be worth watching how Poland’s new government manages these challenges. If successful in bringing Poles together, Donald Tusk’s administration could stand as a model of how to counter the appeal of populism, with potential lessons for other countries such as the United States which faces the prospect of a very different Donald returning to power in the 2024 presidential elections.

Barbara Kratiuk is an Assistant Professor at the University of Warsaw. Roberto Rabel is a Professorial Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington and a visiting professor at the University of Warsaw.