Foreign policy challenges loom in Germany's election

Germany is hurtling towards an unexpected election. In December, German President Steinmeier dissolved the current government to enable the 23 February poll. Significant losses by major parties in last year’s regional elections in former East German states to populist parties Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) point towards a significant shake-up on a federal level. With little time to campaign, Germany’s political parties used the Christmas break to whip up their election platforms.

While the focus of the campaign will be on immigration, cost of living and energy prices, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East, China and the European Union remain central to Germany’s foreign policy. How the major parties – the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, as well as the opposition by AfD – plans to tackle these issues sheds light on the broad geopolitical outlook and Germany’s role in it for 2025 and beyond.

Ukraine remains a key issue for all parties. The major parties pledge total support for Ukraine and the expansion of sanctions against Russia until peace negotiations can take place on equal footing. They also support, in-principle, Ukraine’s entry into the EU and a role for NATO.

A point of division is the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles, which, launched from fighter jets with a range of up to 500 kilometres, would expand Ukraine’s strike options against Russia. CDU and FDP commit to deliver these missiles and have the backing of the Greens. SPD support Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision not to deliver, stating that “discretion and prudence” be applied to the provision of weapons to avoid being drawn into the war. The AfD and BSW, meanwhile, which take a softer line on Moscow, advocate for immediate peace negotiations and a reversal of sanctions on Russia. This is unlikely to have any real policy implications, yet highlights a portion of the population, specifically in the former East, who remain sympathetic to Russia.

On the Middle East, the major parties overwhelmingly support Israel while calling for negotiations for a two-state solution with Palestinians, with the Greens specifying “on the basis of the borders from 1967”. CDU and FDP indicate unequivocal support of the right of Israel to defend itself. The SPD and the Greens also advocate for an improved humanitarian situation and a ceasefire. AfD is rife with anti-Muslim sentiment, centred on immigration issues, but does not take a formal position on conflicts in the Middle East.

The role of European Union is a far larger focus. AfD and BSW diverge from the other major parties, which all unequivocally support the EU as a mechanism of peace and prosperity. They are supportive of greater EU reform and expansion, including the entry of the Western Balkan states and Moldova if conditions are met. The Greens go so far as to envision a future Federal European Republic of member states with its own constitution, and a potential future role for Türkiye. This stands in vast contrast to the AfD, which was founded upon opposition to the EU, who advocate for an exit from the EU and the Eurozone.

With the announcement of Germany’s first China strategy in 2023, former coalition partners SPD, Greens and FDP remain supportive of its implementation and expansion to counteract what has been seen as a “years-long China naivety” and minimise China’s influence where it affects German and European strategic interests. The CDU stands equally firm on reducing China’s influence and advocates an autonomous EU-policy that closely reflects the stance adopted by the United States. While there is cursory mention of Taiwan among the major parties, only FDP indicates greater support for the bilateral relationship and an increased presence for Taiwan in international organisations. CDU, SPD, the Greens and FDP call for greater cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific to enhance security in the region, with CDU and FDP explicitly pointing to deeper relations with Australia (among others) to achieve this.

All parties support strengthening the relationship with United States, particularly under a Trump presidency. AfD, however, urges Germany not to be swayed by the US advocacy against the Nord Stream gas pipeline and explicitly oppose the stationing of long-range weapons systems in Germany.

The Greens and SPD remain strongly supportive of a “feminist foreign policy”, which centres equal rights and freedoms for all, regardless of gender and sexuality. Unsurprisingly, the Greens also focus on climate policy across its platform.

The CDU is currently favoured to take the chancellorship. It will need a coalition with a combination of either SPD, the Greens and/or FDP to form government. AfD, which tech magnate and Trump backer Elon Musk sees as his preferred party, is currently polling second strongest across Germany – however all major parties have categorically ruled out cooperation with them or BSW. That said, the popularity of AfD underscores deep divisions facing German society, including on foreign policy. Germany’s leadership within the EU and globally means its policies and decisions are likely to have tangible consequences.

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